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PATCH WATCH / DOTA2

Dota 2

All trackers

Dota patch versions · Hero change histories →

Street level / Bellevue

Video: City of Bellevue ↗
CONNECTING

Bellevue Way / NE 4th

Nearest HQ street intersection
CONNECTING
CONNECTING
CONNECTING
CONNECTING
CONNECTING

Live public roads, not a view inside Valve. ← / → switch · F fullscreen. Streams pause after 30 seconds per City bandwidth guidance; press Play to resume.

Stream unavailable? WSDOT fallback stills ↗

PATCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

19%

An estimate. Not a promise from Valve.

SINCE LAST PATCH

31d 12h 04m 22s

You can probably make a cup of tea.

Last major update: Sep 15, 2026

PUBLIC SIGNALS / UNOFFICIAL ESTIMATEReading:

LIVE / WAITING ROOM

Something is happening. Somewhere.

Players on Steam

544,140

An entire crowd with the same refresh key. Source: Steam ↗

Test branch pushes today

no reading

No public test apps configured for this game. Source: steamcmd.net ↗.

PATCH HISTORY / LAST 26 WEEKS

Dota 2: signs of life

Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear

■ Patch day · dark = no patch in available feed · outline = no reading. Pacific dates; the source may cover less than 26 weeks.

Read the dated patch history ↗

DAILY CALL / PACIFIC TIME

Patch today? Call it.

One call per network per game per day. Calls close when a patch lands.

No calls yet. A rare consensus.

Results settle when a patch lands, or after midnight Pacific.

Correct-call streak on this browser: no reading

THE COLLECTIVE WAIT

We could have learned a language.

0.0 h

Community time logged on visible tracker tabs since this counter launched. Whole minutes, at most one per network each minute. Requires shared Redis storage.

The tab title alerts you when a new patch is detected. Checks every 60 seconds while this page is open.

Open live share card ↗ · Latest patch notes ↗

[ EXTERIOR FEEDS / PUGET SOUND ]

Outside is still rendering.

● CAMERAS AVAILABLE

Bellevue: I-405 at MP 13.7: NE 7th St, West

Bellevue: I-405 at MP 13.7: NE 7th St, West

0.9 km from HQ · Last camera update

View on Windy ↗ · Camera operator ↗

1 / 12

Public surroundings, not a view inside Valve. Stills are periodic snapshots. Daylight is an earlier daylight image.

Webcams provided by Windy.com — add a webcam

Bellevue: I-405 at MP 13.7: NE 7th St, West

// COMMUNITY TELEMETRY

the internet is watching

The audience has assembled. The patch remains at large.

Dota 2

TWITCH / OBSERVED

20,679live viewers

444live channels

Observed · updates every 5 min

011,55523,109−24h−18h−12h−6hlatest05:10 UTC · 22,595 viewers · 442 channels06:25 UTC · 23,109 viewers · 444 channels06:30 UTC · 21,626 viewers · 437 channels06:35 UTC · 21,747 viewers · 436 channels06:40 UTC · 21,720 viewers · 434 channels06:45 UTC · 20,679 viewers · 444 channels
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
24h observations · 5-minute samples · gaps mean no reading
View recorded counts
Dota 2 · recorded Twitch samples (UTC)
TimeViewersChannels
2026-10-17 05:1022,595442
2026-10-17 06:2523,109444
2026-10-17 06:3021,626437
2026-10-17 06:3521,747436
2026-10-17 06:4021,720434
2026-10-17 06:4520,679444

Spike detector: no reading · needs 30 minutes of continuous samples

Heuristic, not patch confirmation. Tournaments and raids can also draw a crowd.

Top live streamers

  1. 01betboom_dota_ru2 ↗Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult's Brothers | BLAST SLAM IX China Closed Qualifier | cast: @Neret172,341viewers
  2. 02limitlessqt ↗Top 100 | Pos 3 | !winline | !tg | !freebet | СБОРКИ -> https://t.me/limitlessqt2,183viewers
  3. 03deepins02_44052 ↗deepins dipins дипинс диппинс2,106viewers
  4. 04absolut3 ↗!up !redbull !fps хай птс мид ✅ 3 мировых рекорда на SF !tg1,910viewers
  5. 05dnmdota ↗TIDE CARRY🎯NECRO DAGON🎯WHICH ONE WILL IT BE??🎯 SEA+EU PUB GRIND🎯1,339viewers

Source: Twitch Helix. Counts are collected across live pages, not an instantaneous census. Streamer links do not imply endorsement or overlay use.

01 / Live ADS-B · 25 nautical miles

Airspace / Bellevue

18 positioned aircraftN ↑ · HQ 47.6152, −122.2015
HQ25 NM99 aircraftABX3187UAL747N433LFDAL688ASA1373
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear

Orange = business jet type, not owner identity. Stacked positions are grouped; hover, focus or tap for every aircraft. Trails join the same hex within 3 minutes and 25 NM. Sweep is decorative.

02 / Patch gap distribution

How long is a long wait?

31.5 days since last release
TODAY · 75th percentile
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear

Historical gaps, not a probability forecast. Source coverage may be incomplete.

03 / Calendar · UTC

The release record

45 sourced releases · feed traversed to 2024

2024JAN → DEC
2025JAN → DEC
2026JAN → DEC
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
04 / Model decomposition

What moved the needle

19% entertainment estimate
Patch drought / median gapObserved pushes today (UTC)Observed test push recencyHistorical weekday priorPrivate jet activityRain at HQBird observation deficitAI service outagesTwitch viewer spike (estimate)
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear

Baseline −2.5 log-odds → sum contributions → logistic transform. Missing signals contribute zero. This model is not calibrated.

05 / Steam activity · trailing 72 hours

The build room has a pulse

MAIN
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear

no reading · collecting consecutive observations. −72h → latest observation. Blank regions are unobserved; spikes mean a change-number transition, not a release count. Process-local history; resets on restart.

06 / HQ schematic

A few blocks of circumstantial evidence

            │                   │             
            │                   │             
 BELLEVUE   │                   │             
            │                   │             
            │                   │             
────────────── NE 8TH ST ─────────────────────
            │                   │             
            │                   │             
            │                   │             
            │  [HQ]             │             
            │                   │             
────────────── NE 4TH ST ─────────────────────
            │                   │             
            │                   │             
            │                   │I-405        
            │                   │

14.2°C · wind 10.9 km/h · rain 0 mm · Open-Meteo · observation 2026-10-17T06:45:00Z · read at 2026-10-17T06:48:47.425Z

Schematic, not to scale. ▲ = observed aircraft in this local window. Camera locations: no reading.

Behind the number

THE INSTRUMENTS

Public inputs, weighted liberally. Missing readings add nothing.

Patch odds signal inputs, weights and contributions
SignalInputWeightEffect
Patch drought / median gapThe calendar has filed a complaint.0.771.20+0.92
Observed pushes today (UTC)The build machinery has made a noise.0.002.400.00
Observed test push recencyno readingno reading: no public test appsno reading1.40—
Historical weekday priorThe calendar is circumstantial evidence.0.160.80+0.13
Private jet activityBusiness class remains unconfirmed.0.000.150.00
Rain at HQOutside has been deprioritized.0.000.150.00
Bird observation deficitThe birds declined to comment.0.000.100.00
AI service outagesAutocomplete has requested a break.0.00-0.500.00
Twitch viewer spike (estimate)no readinginsufficient fresh Twitch baselineno reading0.40—
The formula, without the lab coatEstimate (entertainment, not calibrated): round(100 / (1 + exp(-(-2.5 + sum(signal.contribution))))). Each contribution = displayed weight × input. Missing readings contribute 0. Twitch weight 0.4; viewer-spike baseline is a heuristic. Pushes are observed transitions, not total releases.

Contributions affect the model score, not percentage points. These odds are an uncalibrated estimate for entertainment.

Recorded dev changes today: 0

Around HQ

BELLEVUE, WA

Circumstantial evidence. Emphasis on circumstantial.

Air traffic
0 private jets
18 aircraft nearby · 0 on approach
adsb.lol ↗
Weather
14.2°C
0 mm rain · 10.9 km/h wind · 1016.5 hPa · observation 2026-10-17T06:45:00Z
Open-Meteo ↗
Bird observations
2 over 7 UTC dates
1.5 weekly baseline · today and prior 6 UTC dates vs preceding 28 dates · sightings, not a bird census
iNaturalist ↗
AI services
2 / 2 operational
Public service status · no individual activity
OpenAI ↗ · Claude ↗

LAST TRANSMISSION

Latest patch

· major update

7.41f Gameplay Patch

Patch 7.41f is out now and you can check out the patch notes here . In addition, we've recently addressed the following issues: Fixed spot on map near the top R

Read patch notes Browse the patch archive →

RELEASE INTELLIGENCE / AVAILABLE HISTORY

A pattern. Allegedly.

25 observed patches

Release times use America/Los_Angeles (PST/PDT). Counts describe the fetched archive, not all-time history. steamstore-a.akamaihd.net.

01 / THE WAIT

Between transmissions

Completed gaps between consecutive patches. Today is the ongoing wait.

Gap-between-patches distribution

↳ Today · 31.5 days since latest patch

Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Gap-between-patches distribution data
RecordValueSource / UTC
<1d0 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
1–2d0 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
2–4d2 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
4–7d4 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
7–14d4 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
14–30d8 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
30d+6 intervalssteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

02 / BELLEVUE TIME

When the button gets pressed

Release hour, 00–23. A timezone, not a promise.

Hour-of-day releases
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Hour-of-day releases data
RecordValueSource / UTC
000 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
010 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
020 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
030 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
040 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
050 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
060 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
070 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
080 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
090 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
100 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
113 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
120 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
131 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
144 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
156 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
169 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
171 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
181 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
190 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
200 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
210 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
220 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
230 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

03 / WEEKLY HABITS

Does Valve have a type?

Patch counts by local weekday.

Weekday releases
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Weekday releases data
RecordValueSource / UTC
Mon1 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue8 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed4 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu8 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri4 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

04 / READING MATERIAL

How long are the patch notes?

Plain-text word count, not download bytes. Full notes available for 25 / 25 patches.

Patch-size distribution (note words)
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Patch-size distribution (note words) data
RecordValueSource / UTC
<1002 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
100–49915 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
500–9996 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
1k–3k2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
3k+0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

05 / CADENCE

The wait, over time

Days between releases, oldest → newest.

Release gap history
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Release gap history data
RecordValueSource / UTC
2025-02-223.06 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1792116353245376
2025-03-0410.72 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1792751526181847
2025-03-1915.08 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1794102528280807
2025-03-277.99 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1795283637831236
2025-05-2963.09 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1800991756325775
2025-06-2425.89 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1802893906902262
2025-08-0744.11 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1807332909585753
2025-08-2214.91 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1808601382490093
2025-08-286.09 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1809235871601505
2025-10-0234.94 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1811772772489146
2025-10-096.83 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1813041031215262
2025-12-1667.24 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1818752592134412
2025-12-237.96 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1819386365105311
2026-01-2229.05 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1822556746157843
2026-01-308.95 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1823191198606637
2026-03-2453.02 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1827626365766968
2026-03-272.94 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1828441623105709
2026-03-314.03 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1828894815553165
2026-04-076.9 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1828894815568310
2026-05-0629.08 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1832065502810383
2026-06-0529.1 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1834602721189111
2026-07-0126.94 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1836506165566626
2026-07-3029.02 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1839676055886687
2026-09-1546.78 days between patcheshttps://steamstore-a.akamaihd.net/news/externalpost/steam_community_announcements/1843481262705400

06 / RELEASE MIX

Big changes. Small changes.

Major / minor classification from the archive heuristic.

Patch classification
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Patch classification data
RecordValueSource / UTC
Major16 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Minor9 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

07 / RELEASE WINDOWS

A week at a glance

Rows Monday–Sunday · columns 00–04, 04–08, 08–12, 12–16, 16–20, 20–24. Darker cells mean fewer releases.

Release weekday and four-hour window
Inspect the recordHover or focus for values · tap to pin · Esc to clear
View exact values and sources
Release weekday and four-hour window data
RecordValueSource / UTC
Mon 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Mon 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Mon 8–12h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Mon 12–16h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Mon 16–20h1 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Mon 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 8–12h2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 12–16h4 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 16–20h2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Tue 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 8–12h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 12–16h2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 16–20h2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Wed 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 8–12h1 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 12–16h2 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 16–20h5 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Thu 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 8–12h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 12–16h3 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 16–20h1 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Fri 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 8–12h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 12–16h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 16–20h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sat 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 0–4h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 4–8h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 8–12h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 12–16h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 16–20h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net
Sun 20–24h0 patchessteamstore-a.akamaihd.net

WAIT TOGETHER

Your stream has room for one more obsession.

Add the patch clock to OBS. Give chat something measurable to argue about.

Open stream overlay